UN COP26 CONFERENCE
“ We can ' t solve climate change without first addressing our addiction to fossil fuels ” DAVID FLOOD
Which brings us to the ‘ elephant ’ in the Glasgow conference room – fossil fuels . Although it has been losing market share since the 1970s , oil still accounts for a third of global primary energy consumption and a staggering 81 % of primary energy demand , powered by rapidly growing emerging economies , and it isn ’ t disappearing anytime soon .
China alone , the largest source of oil consumption growth , is forecast to grow by 8 Mb / d to 17.5 Mb / d by 2030 .
The conundrum is how to reconcile oil demand with scientists ’ warnings , who say
60 % of oil and gas reserves and 90 % of coal must remain in the ground to keep global warming below 1.5 ° C .
Then there ’ s the matter of decarbonisation financing ; the Cities Climate Investment Commission puts the central estimate at £ 200 billion for London and the UK ’ s core cities alone . Carbon taxes are likely to be a hot topic in Scotland , but that might just be the start .
“ Oil ( and biofuels ) will likely remain dominant in the transport sector to 2030 , with cost and the long economic lives of oil-consuming equipment limiting prospects for other fuels to win substantial market share over the next 20 years ,” notes an Oil Market to 2030 – Implications for Investment and Policy bp report .
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